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Geopolitical··Severity 6

Trump’s surprise Ukraine shift steadies nervous Nato allies

A summit that threatened new acrimony among the allies ended with free guns and ‘love in the room’

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

37%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: FT World

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