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Geopolitical··Severity 9

Iran signals defiance as Trump fumes over Strait of Hormuz strikes

Iranian officials insist that Tehran will not give up control over the waterway as US attacks threaten fragile truce.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

69%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Al Jazeera

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