Geopolitical··Severity 6
US launches new wave of strikes against Iran after promising to 'hit them hard'
Explosions have been reported by Iranian state media in parts of the country's south.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
40%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: BBC World
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