← Scenarios catalogue
Geopolitical··Severity 8

How Ukraine’s drone strikes brought war home to 50mn Russians

Kyiv’s campaign against energy infrastructure leads to long queues for fuel, with Cossacks deployed to stop fights

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

69%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: FT World

Checking access status…