Geopolitical··Severity 8
Ukraine strikes Russian ships near Crimea, escalating attacks on fuel supplies
The attacks appear to be the latest phase of Ukraine's bid to choke off supplies and routes into and out of occupied Crimea.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
67%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: BBC World
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