← Scenarios catalogue
Geopolitical··Severity 6

Militia-like movements appear in Chad amid surge in intercommunal violence

In Chad, intercommunal violence has dramatically risen, with authorities flagging five different incidents just last month, with over 300 killed in just two years. The UN has warned that violence is escalating across the entire Lake Chad basin, with 5,700 people killed since last November. Violence has also forced thousands to leave. FRANCE 24's Harold Girard tells us more

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

43%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: France24

Checking access status…