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Geopolitical··Severity 6

Will NATO get involved in securing Strait of Hormuz?

Iran war overshadows defence alliance's summit in Turkiye.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

42%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Al Jazeera

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