Geopolitical··Severity 6
Is the Strait of Hormuz still Iran's trump card?
Iran's latest attacks show it can easily disrupt shipping, energy markets and draw in Gulf neighbors. DW asks how much leverage Tehran really has over Washington and if its high-risk strategy could backfire.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
44%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: DW World
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