Military··Severity 9
US, Iran Trade Attacks for Second Day, Testing Fragile Ceasefire
The US military struck Iran for a second day and Tehran retaliated against American allies in the Persian Gulf, raising fears that the tit-for-tat attacks may derail talks on a permanent peace deal.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
70%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Bloomberg Markets
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