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Geopolitical··Severity 8

Hormuz Traffic Grinds to a Near Halt as Ceasefire Under Threat

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz came to a near standstill on Thursday, after the US struck Iran for a second straight day as a fragile truce between the two sides looked increasingly shaky.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

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51%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Bloomberg Markets

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