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Geopolitical··Severity 6

Victory for al-Qaeda’s Affiliate in Mali Would be a Regional Catastrophe

Mali is not Syria, and Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin is not Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham.While the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime and the rise of the Ahmed al-Sharaa government in Damascus, Syria can be seen as a net positive for regional security in the Levant, a Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin victory in Mali would devastate the region.Unlike Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin is a horizontally integrated transnational coalition committed to dismantling existing international borders, with a rank and file too radical to accept an Islamic Emirate of Mali as a terminal goal. Iyad Ag Ghali, the leader of The post Victory for al-Qaeda’s Affiliate in Mali Would be a Regional Catastrophe appeared first on War on the Rocks .

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

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42%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: War on the Rocks

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