Geopolitical··Severity 9
US-Iran conflict escalates as fresh missile strikes threaten Middle East ceasefire
The United States launched fresh airstrikes on Iran early Thursday, prompting Tehran to fire missiles at Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and Jordan, targeting countries hosting US forces, officials said. The exchanges threatened a fragile interim ceasefire aimed at ending the Middle East conflict, with explosions also reported near Iran's nuclear power plant.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
80%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: France24
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