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Geopolitical··Severity 6

US launches new strikes as Iran claims that Strait of Hormuz is closed

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

38%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: wmtw.com

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