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Geopolitical··Severity 8

How Hong Kong can draw line under the 2019-20 protests and move forward

Hong Kong needs to give some serious and creative thought as to how best we, as a community, are going to draw a line under the events of the 2019-20 protest movement. That this was a serious and sad episode in our history cannot be denied or avoided. Thousands of well-meaning ordinary individuals joined public demonstrations, many for the first time in their lives. Whatever the flaws of the government’s extradition legislation and undoubted missteps in its political execution, and however...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

57%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

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