Social··Severity 6
Why the Iran-US ceasefire is falling apart
Iran, US resumed fighting because they don’t see each other as ‘reliable negotiating partners’, says analyst Ali Vaez.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
21%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Al Jazeera
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