Geopolitical··Severity 8
UN chief urges Iran and US to ‘urgently resume negotiations’ as Gulf strikes escalate
Renewed strikes and counterstrikes between Iran and the United States in the Gulf region have raised fears of a return to all‑out war, with Washington denying Tehran’s claim that it had closed the crucial Strait of Hormuz on Sunday.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
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64%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: UN News
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