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Geopolitical··Severity 6

US forces launch new strikes on Iran; Tehran closes Strait of Hormuz

US forces have launched a third round of strikes on Iran in a week.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

40%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Al Jazeera

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