Geopolitical··Severity 6
FirstFT: US launches new strikes on Iran in fight over Strait of Hormuz
Also in today’s newsletter: Lindsey Graham dies aged 71 and Zelenskyy dismisses Ukraine’s prime minister
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
42%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: FT World
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