Geopolitical··Severity 6
US launches more strikes after Iran declares Strait of Hormuz closed
IRGC hits commercial ship transiting through waterway, with Centcom saying a crew member was missing from vessel
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
40%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: FT World
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