← Scenarios catalogue
Geopolitical··Severity 8

Iran attacks five Gulf nations, shuts Hormuz after US bombing: All to know

Tehran hits back at several GCC countries, following the most intense US bombing since an MoU was signed last month.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

62%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Al Jazeera

Checking access status…