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Military··Severity 9

Iran declares Strait of Hormuz closed, US launches new strikes

Iran on Sunday said ⁠it closed the Strait of Hormuz after a vessel travelled on an unapproved route and was struck, warning that any retaliation over the incident would be met with a “severe response”. “A vessel that had jeopardised maritime security by switching off its systems was struck and brought to a halt,” the Navy of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said in a statement, without giving any details about the ship. ⁠The ⁠US ⁠military said shortly after that it had launched a new...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

80%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

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