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Geopolitical··Severity 8

US launches another round of strikes on Iran as ceasefire teeters

Trump administration insists that the Strait of Hormuz remains open after Tehran declared it closed

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

56%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: FT World

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