Geopolitical··Severity 8
Oil Jumps as US and Iran Trade Strikes, Dispute Hormuz Status
Oil jumped as the US and Iran exchanged fresh strikes, with the sides offering conflicting statements on whether the Strait of Hormuz remains open to shipping.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
64%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Bloomberg Markets
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