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Geopolitical··Severity 6

Philippine rice output risks 30% collapse as ‘super’ El Nino strengthens

In the fields of central Luzon, farmers who planted their rice in June are watching the sky with worry. Out over the Pacific, a familiar spectre is gathering strength – and with it, the threat of empty granaries and hungry households. The Philippines has a plan for this year’s “super” El Nino, on paper at least. But to the Filipinos out actually working the paddies, that plan is barely perceptible. “We don’t see anything visible, it’s all talk,” said Raul Montemayor, national manager of the...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

39%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

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