Military··Severity 9
US attacks Iran as IRGC claims strikes on US military sites in Gulf
Oil prices rise as the US renews a blockade on Iranian ports and carries out a wave of air strikes.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
80%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Al Jazeera
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