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Military··Severity 9

US attacks Iran as IRGC claims strikes on US military sites in Gulf

Oil prices rise as the US renews a blockade on Iranian ports and carries out a wave of air strikes.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

80%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Al Jazeera

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