Geopolitical··Severity 6
Who is calling the shots in Iran amid the deadly war with the US?
The IRGC has taken the lead in Iran, particularly over Hormuz - and the government says it's on the same page.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
40%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Al Jazeera
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