Geopolitical··Severity 6
Sierra Leone drops treason charge against ex-president over attempted coup
Ernest Bai Koroma was arrested in 2023 after gunmen broke into an armoury and some jails, freeing inmates.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
35%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: BBC World
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