Geopolitical··Severity 8
Iran threatens to block more trade routes as US launches fresh strikes
President Donald Trump vowed to strike Iran's bridges and power plants next week if the country does not return to talks.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
56%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: BBC World
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