← Scenarios catalogue
Geopolitical··Severity 9

US-Iran war: is Trump falling into a Vietnam ‘quagmire’?

Five months and at least two ceasefires into the US-Israeli war on Iran, hostilities have intensified again, with US President Donald Trump reimposing a naval blockade on Iranian ports and American forces trading fresh strikes with Tehran. The renewed cycle is testing both Tehran’s resilience and Washington’s appetite for a prolonged conflict, prompting some analysts to draw uncomfortable parallels with the political tolls that past US presidents faced in drawn-out wars such as in Vietnam and...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

76%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

Checking access status…