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Social··Severity 6

Amid democratic backsliding, Will NATO 'raise concerns' over Turkey's crackdown on opposition?

For Spotlight, François Picard is pleased to welcome Barış Altıntaş, co-founder and co-director of the Media and Law Studies Association, providing pro-bono legal support to writers and journalists in Turkey. She warns of systemic democratic erosion across Turkey rooted in sustained institutional pressure. Rather than portraying recent arrests, prosecutions, and restrictions as exceptional responses to a particular political moment, the guest argues that they form part of a long-running and adaptable pattern in which different segments of society become targets according to changing political priorities.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

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Эскалация

28%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: France24

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