Geopolitical··Severity 6
US or Iran — Who needs a new truce deal more?
Both sides face pressure points that could make a protracted war painful.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
34%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Al Jazeera
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