Geopolitical··Severity 6
One anti-war critic fined, another held as Russia clamps down on opponents
While Boris Nadezhdin is barred from running for parliament, blogger Ilya Remeslo is remanded in custody.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
40%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: BBC World
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