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Geopolitical··Severity 8

Why Iran is returning to war

Its rulers believe that further escalation will force the US to offer the security and economic relief it craves

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

62%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: FT World

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