Geopolitical··Severity 8
US strikes Iranian civilian infrastructure, Tehran retaliates with attacks on US facilities in Gulf
In a primetime address to the nation, Trump said the US was 'winning big in Iran' and the American public would see 'the fruits of that labour'. However, a deal seems far out of reach as fighting in the region continues to escalate.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
64%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Euronews
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