Geopolitical··Severity 8
EU bolsters Red Sea mission amid reports Houthis may shut Bab el-Mandeb
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas visited Djibouti and signed a new security agreement to strengthen Europe's naval presence, as reports say Tehran has asked the Houthis to shut the Bab el-Mandeb if the US strikes Iranian infrastructure, threatening a second global shipping chokepoint.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
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63%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Euronews
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