Geopolitical··Severity 8
Ukraine suffers port attacks as protests persist over defence shake-up
Russian attacks reportedly kill two Ukrainians aboard foreign vessel in Mykolaiv; two more killed in Kherson and Odesa.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
64%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Al Jazeera
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