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Military··Severity 9

Trump’s intense attacks have failed to sway Iran. He’s trying again anyway

President Donald ⁠Trump has ramped up US air strikes on Iran and threatened broader escalation, but there is ⁠little sign that a military strategy that has already failed to extract concessions from Tehran will succeed this time. With the collapse of an interim ceasefire deal reached a month ago, Trump finds himself in a bind as he seeks to break Iran’s grip on the vital Strait of Hormuz and force Tehran to accept his demands. While the two sides have so far avoided a return to full-scale...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

78%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

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