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Geopolitical··Severity 8

The tranquil spot in rural Ireland accused of fuelling Russia’s war

Aughinish Alumina plant linked to sanctioned oligarch Oleg Deripaska faces increasing scrutiny but locals fear for jobs

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

62%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: FT World

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