Geopolitical··Severity 6
Oil’s Battered Shock Absorbers Risk Price Spike as War Returns
Global oil markets have been spared an extreme squeeze during the first phase of the Iran war, but renewed fighting is bringing with it greater risk of a price spike in a world where supply buffers have been worn perilously thin.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
42%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Bloomberg Markets
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