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Economic··Severity 7

The War, the Oil Crisis and American Politics

According to people who follow the oil trade closely, we are entering the point at which the oil buffer of global reserves is reaching its limits. In layman’s terms, this means oil prices are soaring as an actual lack of oil starts to be a real possibility. This is, of course, due to the war in Iran. Iran’s strategy in the war has been clear: closing the Strait of Hormuz to create an economic crisis. The military imperative was to cause a political crisis in the United States; the global economic crisis was collateral damage. Since World War II, U.S. […] The post The War, the Oil Crisis and American Politics appeared first on Geopolitical Futures .

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

46%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Geopolitical Futures

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