Geopolitical··Severity 9
US launches fresh strikes on Iran, as Trump warns of retaliation for death of soldiers
The US says the attacks were aimed at degrading Iran's capabilities to attack ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
77%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: BBC World
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