Geopolitical··Severity 8
Khalil al-Hayya: The Gaza negotiator who will now lead Hamas
For months, veteran Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya spearheaded the group's indirect ceasefire negotiations with arch-foe Israel in an effort to halt the war in Gaza.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
56%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: France24
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