Geopolitical··Severity 6
Protests over defense minister Fyodorov's dismissal spread to 16 Ukrainian cities
Demonstrations had taken place in Kiev, Chernigov, Dnepropetrovsk, Ivano-Frankovsk, Kharkov, Lutsk, Lvov, Nikolayev, Odessa, Ternopol, Sumy and Zaporozhye
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
35%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: TASS English
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