Geopolitical··Severity 6
Oil returns above $90 as Iran hits tankers
US carries out fresh wave of attacks as the number of American casualties rises
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
44%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: FT World
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