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Military··Severity 9

Morning update

Morning update Good morning Middle East Eye readers, Here are some of the latest developments across the region: The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) it struck more US military targets in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain, state news agency IRNA reported. This includes a central data infrastructure of the American company Amazon in Bahrain, which the IRGC said it attacked with several cruise missiles. The US State Department issued an alert urging its citizens around the world to "exercise increased caution", amid its war on Iran. It warned Americans of the increased possibility of attacks targeting US diplomatic facilities "or at locations associated with the United States and Americans throughout the world." UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said on Monday that it received multiple reports that a tanker has been struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz. The incident reportedly occurred eight nautical miles north east of Oman's Limah. Hamas has elected Khalil al-Hayya as the new head of its political bureau, placing one of the movement’s most experienced negotiators at the centre of its leadership as Gaza continues to face what the group describes as Israel’s genocide. The United Nations said that it is concerned about Houthi threats to impose a "maritime embargo" on Saudi Arabia, which could potentially trigger a fresh surge in crude oil prices, disrupt fuel supplies and have further ramifications on the global economy.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

80%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Middle East Eye

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