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Geopolitical··Severity 6

美伊谅解备忘录已事实上破裂 , 停火前景不明 ; 伊朗本月袭击致近100名美军受伤 , 特朗普暗示要强硬报复

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

35%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: 163.com

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