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Military··Severity 6

IN BRIEF: Ukrainian military reshuffle with new commander-in-chief, General Staff head

Under Ukraine’s national security law, Zelensky may appoint a new commander-in-chief only upon the recommendation of a serving defense minister, a position that is currently vacant

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

47%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: TASS English

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