Geopolitical··Severity 6
Bandits, gang members and drug traffickers: Russia expands recruitment of convicts for war
Russia's State Duma (the lower house of the Russian parliament) has expanded the list of convicted criminals whom Russian authorities will be able to recruit into the Armed Forces during mobilisation, martial law or wartime.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
40%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Ukrainska Pravda
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