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Geopolitical··Severity 9

Russia’s grinding war in Ukraine shows the impotence of nuclear weapons

Why haven’t Ukraine’s drone and missile attacks on Russia triggered Moscow’s use of tactical nuclear weapons, as it has threatened? When Russia is attacked time and again, one wonders what purpose it serves to have the world’s largest nuclear arsenal. The Ukraine war is at a stalemate. Though roughly 90 per cent of the territory in East Donbas is under Russian control, its ground advances have slowed to less than 100 metres a day, according to a July 1 report by the Centre for Strategic...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

79%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

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