Geopolitical··Severity 6
Electoral preferences: former defence minister Fedorov nearly catches up with former commander-in-chief Zaluzhnyi – survey
In the first round of a hypothetical presidential election, 22.3% of Ukrainians would vote for incumbent President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, 14.9% for former commander-in-chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi and 13.4% for Mykhailo Fedorov, whose dismissal as defence minister sparked a wave of protests.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
35%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Ukrainska Pravda
Checking access status…